Against a backdrop of elevated rates, geopolitical tension, and evolving trade dynamics, Bloomberg’s coverage from the 2025 Milken Conference captured how leading market voices are thinking about risk, resilience, and opportunity. The dominant tone was one of measured confidence, grounded in selective risk-taking and deep structural themes.

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We’ve synthesized the highlights into a quick-read snap shot that cuts across macro outlooks, private markets, credit innovation, and trade-driven geographic repositioning.

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What We Heard: Top Themes

• Private Markets: Credit & Asset Backed Finance in Focus: Secondaries, asset-backed finance, and hybrid debt were repeatedly highlighted as fast-growing areas within private credit—especially as allocators seek liquidity, resilience, and cycle-tested managers in uncertain times. There was also mention of selective risk-taking in high yield and leveraged loans.‍

• Tariffs Are a Double-Edged Sword: While tariff-related volatility dominated discussions, views were nuanced. Some saw disruptions (especially at 25% levels) as structural threats, while others noted opportunity creation—particularly in supply chain realignment toward Japan, India, and Southeast Asia. Direct lenders like Churchill noted minimal impact on middle market direct lending to date.‍

• Europe as a Medium-Term Bright Spot: Though the U.S. remains the core market, speakers flagged Europe’s fiscal and defense tailwinds as catalysts for rotation beyond 2026. Themes included industrials, infrastructure, and deregulation-led recovery—especially in Germany and broader EU markets.

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Sentiment Scorecard

We compiled sentiment ratings (1 = Very Pessimistic, 5 =Very Optimistic) across 14 speakers. The average score was 3.3, reflecting a "cautiously optimistic" outlook.

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Optimistic Voices (Score: 4):

• Ida Liu (Citi): Confident in private secondaries, AI, and opportunities in Asia supply chain shifts
• ‍Matt Gibson (Goldman Sachs): Bullish on asset backed finance and secondaries
• David Steinbach (Hines): Calls bottom on U.S. real estate
• Ken Kencel (Churchill): Large firms/borrowers shifting to direct lending post Liberation Day

Strategic Neutrality (Score: 3):

Most other speakers, including those from PIMCO, Carlyle, Oaktree, and BlackRock, delivered balanced or risk-aware perspectives, with emphasis on scenario planning, cautious underwriting, and defensive positioning.

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3 Forward-Looking Statements That Stood Out

• “It is reasonable to say that the probability of recession is slightly above 50%.” — Emmanuel Roman, PIMCO‍
• “92% of our borrowers see no impact from tariffs...mid-market direct lending remains stable.” — Ken Kencel, Churchill‍
• “If Treasuries react negatively to policy shifts, it can prompt a rapid recalibration.” — Jason Thomas, Carlyle

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‍Conclusion: A Market Leaning In, Not Pulling Back

Across the board, there was no broad retreat—just more selective conviction. From early AI adoption in modeling and mortgage analytics, to measured optimism in U.S. residential real estate and European credit, the tone was disciplined but not bearish. This year’s conversations reaffirmed what many in the alternatives space already know: the right risk, with the right partners, still commands capital.

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Disclaimer

The information provided in this publication is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, are commendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Certain statements contained herein may be forward-looking based on current expectations, beliefs, or estimates about the industry and markets. Such forward-looking statements are not guaranteed to actually occur. The views expressed are those of Epic Funds and may change without notice.